A comprehensive new presidential election forecasting model from the highly regarded economic analysis organization Moody’s Analytics predicts that current President Joe Biden will win re-election in 2024, defeating former President Donald Trump by an even wider electoral college margin than his 2020 victory.
Biden To Beat Trump Again In 2024, Forecast Predicts
Moody’s Analytics, which has an excellent reputation for political and economic predictive modeling, released its much anticipated 2024 presidential election forecast in January 2023. Their election model, incorporating factors like economic conditions, presidential approval ratings, and voter turnout levels, shows Joe Biden once again winning the electoral college over Donald Trump, this time by a tally of 308 votes to 230 votes. While still a relatively narrow margin, this reflects a slight improvement for Biden from 2020, when he secured 306 electoral college votes compared to Trump’s 232 votes after all counting and court challenges were finally completed.
However, the report emphasizes that Biden’s victory margin projects to be razor thin, with around six states in the balance decided by less than a single percentage point difference in popular vote margin.
Battleground States To Determine Election
Moody’s Analytics identifies Pennsylvania, with its 20 electoral votes, as the single most important state that is likely to determine the outcome of the 2024 election. Their modeling shows that if Biden loses Pennsylvania, he will not be able to capture enough other states to reach the required 270 electoral vote majority, thus handing Trump a second non-consecutive term in the Oval Office.
These virtually tied contests indicate that the country remains incredibly polarized and split down the middle. Any minor shifts in voter sentiment, even just a few thousand votes between the candidates make a difference in who captures these precious electoral votes.
What If Biden Loses Some States?
To illustrate just how close the election is projected to be, Moody’s Analytics outlined hypothetical scenarios of Biden losing certain swing states and examined if he could still clear the 270 electoral vote hurdle needed to secure a second term. They assessed that even if Biden loses both North Carolina and Nevada but maintains his small leads in the other contested states like Pennsylvania and Georgia, he would finish with exactly 270 votes – the bare minimum to squeeze by.
This demonstrates Biden’s precarious position with little margin for error. Just a minor polling dip of a couple of percentage points in places like Georgia or Pennsylvania could take him from a celebrating victory to a desperately close defeat.
Past Errors Highlight Difficulty In Forecasting
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics and leader of their election forecasting team, openly acknowledged they incorrectly predicted Donald Trump would win re-election back in 2020. The fact that such a reputable prediction model could get it wrong even on the eve of the last election highlights just how challenging it is to forecast presidential races, especially with the polarization, economic volatility, and unpredictability of factors like voter turnout levels seen in recent cycles.
By transparently admitting their past mistakes, Moody’s aims to emphasize to readers the uncertainties and razor-thin margins surrounding their 2024 election prediction.
Keys For A Biden Victory
For Biden to ultimately achieve victory in 2024 and capture that second term, the Moody’s Analytics report highlights that continued solid economic growth between now and November 2024 is crucial. Voter participation levels reaching close to recent historical norms without major shifts in enthusiasm between the party bases are also pivotal.
However, in such a tense and polarized time within the country, where politics has become incredibly tribal and economic stability seems constantly at risk from domestic or global events, relying on these baseline assumptions may be unrealistic.
Early Polling Corroborates Moody’s Prediction
In a validating sign for Moody’s election forecast, early 2024 presidential polling also shows Joe Biden holding a consistent edge over Donald Trump in hypothetical head-to-head matchups. A January 2023 Quinnipiac University nationwide survey gave Biden a 50% to 44% lead over the former president among registered voters when asked who they would vote for if the 2024 election occurred today.
This trend of Biden slowly expanding his polling margin in recent months, combined with his substantial lead among independent voters that has climbed to a 12 point 52% to 40% split in the latest Quinnipiac poll provides credence to the Moody’s prediction of a Biden victory next year.
America Awaits 2024 Rematch With Bated Breath
As 2024 progresses, all eyes across America remain fixed on the looming Biden vs Trump election rematch. Both party bases seem highly energized to turn out at ever-increasing rates to support their side, while true independents waver between the options. Though Biden maintains a consistent but very tight polling lead, many expect another intensely close contest with neither candidate securing a strong mandate.
Just the slightest voter preference shift of a few tens of thousands of votes either way in Pennsylvania, Georgia, or other states could completely flip the election script and ensuing consequences for America’s direction
Trump Mounting Fierce 2024 Campaign Despite Underdog Status
Although President Biden is viewed as a slight favorite at this extremely early point, Donald Trump has already begun waging an aggressive campaign to mount his political comeback bid for the White House in 2024 following a single term out of power. Fueled as ever by rallies with his fiercely loyal supporter base chanting “Four More Years!” the former president seems as fiery and motivated as ever to achieve electoral revenge after his 2020 defeat and defy the early predictions that show him as an underdog.
By maintaining raucous energy around his political movement ever since leaving office, Trump aims to once again defy doubters and expectations by driving higher turnout from his followers than the data models account for.
What Factors Could Dramatically Flip the Forecast?
While the first 2024 election projections give a slight advantage to President Biden, chief economist Mark Zandi, and the Moody’s Analytics team openly underscore the high uncertainty at this early phase, especially given such a politically chaotic climate.
Presidential election forecasts two years out fail to capture dramatic circumstances or enthusiastic political movements which often materialize closer to voting time, eventually propelling one candidate to victory against initial perceptions. Given the polarization and high tensions in America right now, shocking developments before November 2024 seem almost inevitable.
2024 Likely Again Going Down To Nail-Biting End
As Moody’s Analytics initial projection indicates, Joe Biden currently stands as a quite tenuous favorite for re-election over Donald Trump in 2024. But with the margins between winning and losing certain to come down to thousands of votes in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and other battleground states stretched almost to the breaking point by extreme partisan divisions, this could very well culminate in yet another white-knuckle election night cliffhanger.
Americans should brace for an intense sequel to the chaos and uncertainty witnessed in November 2020, while the world watches and waits with bated breath to see which party ultimately prevails in controlling the globe’s most influential democracy for the next four turbulent years.
