America is less than seven months away from electing its next Commander-in-Chief – and the polls are heating up! The past few months saw former President Donald Trump leading in a majority of the polls, but that doesn’t seem to be the case anymore as current President Joe Biden continues to gain support across the nation.
New Poll Gives Biden Slight Lead
The new poll, conducted by Echelon Insights between April 12 and 14, concluded that 49% of the 1,020 voters would either definitely, probably, or lean toward voting for Biden – compared to just 46% who would vote for Trump.
With that said, the polls also suggested that 66% of respondents believe the country is on the wrong track currently, with most people concerned about the rising cost of living, immigration, jobs, and the current state of the economy.
Democrats Also Winning Congressional Votes
Biden isn’t the only Democrat receiving a boost in polls. 49% of those who responded said they would vote for a Democrat in the Congressional elections, while 46% said they would vote Republican – aligning with the presidential results.
And for those who think the poll was dominated by Democrats, that’s simply not the case. In fact, 38% of the respondents were Democrats, 37% were Republicans, and 23% were considered Independents. Biden appears to be getting a boost from the Independents.
Echelon Insights Is Republican-Aligned
The new poll is encouraging for anyone supporting Biden because Echelon Insights is widely regarded as a Republican-aligned polling firm. It was co-founded by former Republican digital strategist Patrick Ruffini and pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson.
The firm was initially started in 2014 with a clear vision of fixing the Republicans’ dire polling problem – which many criticized as biased. Unfortunately, many people (especially in recent years) have called them out for their hypocrisy.
Mark Shanahan Warns Against Poll-Watching
In an interview with Newsweek, Mark Shanahan – an associate professor who teaches politics at the University of Surrey in the United Kingdom – warned voters not to get too excited or discouraged by the results of one poll.
“We should never set too much store by the results of one poll, and all we can really say at the moment is that this is a tight race between two unpopular candidates,” Shanahan said. Keep in mind that most polls only give you a sample size of 1,000 people.
Polls And Voting Are Used To Spread Fear
Shanahan went on to argue that most polls play into the same fear-mongering tactics that politicians use in their campaigns. The way they see it, the easiest way to gain support is to manipulate voters into fearing ‘the other guy.’
“Fear of a second Trump term drives Democrats and independents to vote,” Shanahan told Newsweek recently – adding that the same goes for the other side. Republicans are showing out in large numbers out of a fear of another four years of Biden.
Poll Released Before Trump’s Criminal Trial
Shanahan also made light of the timing of the Echelon Insights poll – noting that it was released just as Trump’s ‘hush money’ trial commenced in New York. He’s suggesting that Republicans are encouraging their party to vote by instilling a fear that Biden has a chance.
“It’s a race where the fear factor will play strongly in getting out the vote, and that’s why the timing of the Echelon Insights poll may be interesting,” he said – adding that Republicans aim to ‘stoke that fear among GOP-leaning voters.’
Hush Money Trial Could Damage Trump’s Image
The professor detailed how Trump’s image could take a major hit as a result of the hush money trial, which has him facing 34 felony counts for a ‘hush money’ payment he made to adult film star Stormy Daniels. She alleged they had an affair, but he denies it.
“This poll was conducted just before Trump’s Stormy Daniels New York trial began, a trial that could damage Trump’s standing outside his base,” Shanahan said. “This current poll is aimed at shoring up their support with the suggestion that Biden is still very much in this race.”
RacetotheWH Sees Growing Trend
Biden’s sudden rise in the polls might be minimal, but it aligns with a growing trend we’re seeing in polls across the nation. According to RacetotheWH, which tracks national polls in real time, Biden is seeing similar spikes in a wide range of polls.
The website shows that Democrats started receiving a slight lead over Republicans at the beginning of April. As of right now, Biden (45.5%) has a 0.4% lead over Trump (45.1%) – with 9.4% of Americans undecided.
Steven Cheung Ignores Recent Trends
Newsweek reached out to Trump’s campaign and requested a comment on the recent dip in polls. Steven Cheung, a spokesperson for Trump, appeared to ignore the Echelon Insights poll. Instead, he shared two other polls that had Trump winning.
One of those polls showed Trump gaining a lot of support in five of the six major swing states this election cycle – Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Arizona. The other poll gave Trump a 1% lead over the sitting President.
Americans Have Difficult Decision Ahead Of Them
Americans have roughly six months to decide who they want to be the next President of the United States. Unfortunately, many voters are stuck between a Democrat who’s committed to saving Democracy and a Republican who’s committed to tearing it all down.
It might seem like an easy decision, but the pro-democracy candidate has many Americans in a worse spot financially and economically than they were four years ago. While the Republican candidate can help fix the economy, it comes with a fear of the unknown.
What Issues Are Important?
A lot of people might think the biggest issues on the ballot this year are abortion, gun rights, corruption, climate change, corruption, and the state of democracy. In reality, less than 15% of respondents have any of those issues in their top-three (according to Echelon Insights’ data).
As we mentioned earlier, most Americans are concerned about the cost of living, immigration, and the economy. The candidate who can promise positive changes in that regard will win over a strong majority of voters this November.
Who Will Win Control Of House and Senate?
As it stands right now, the Republicans have a slight lead over Democrats in the House – 218-213 with four independents. The Senate is even closer, with Democrats holding a 51-49 majority (which includes 48 Democrats and three independents who vote with Democrats).
This year, the Senate has 20 Democratic, 11 Republican, and three independent seats up for election. Meanwhile, all 435 seats in the House are up for grabs and 23 of them are currently considered toss-ups – with the Republicans expected to have an advantage.
