Donald Trump hasn’t had a lot of Democratic support over the past eight years, but that tide appears to be changing for the former President. At least that’s what a series of polls from Harvard CAPS/Harris are telling us, and it comes just six months away from the presidential election – here’s what we learned!
Donald Trump Will Shake Up The Country For The Better
A March survey by Harvard CAPS/Harris found that 33% of Democrats currently believe Trump will shake up the country for the better, if elected President of the United States in November – that’s one-third of all Democrats!
For reference, that percentage was 28% in January and 30% in February – which tells us that his support among Democrats is growing. With a lot of polls giving Biden a slight edge over Trump, it’s unclear how long that lasts if Trump continues to gain support in blue states.
Trump Is A Danger To Democracy
The CAPS/Harris survey gave pollers two options – that Trump would shake up the country for the better (as described above) or that Trump is a ‘danger to democracy and will hopelessly divide the country if elected.’
In January, 72% of pollers described Trump as a ‘danger to democracy. That number dipped down to 70% by February and, more recently, 67% in March – which continues to prove that Democrats are starting to open up to Donald Trump’s vision for America.
Trump Outlasts More Than A Dozen Republican Challengers
Trump faced a lot of opposition in the 2024 republican primary – which, at one point, had more than a dozen challengers on the ticket, including Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Asa Hutchinson,, Vivek Ramaswamy, Mike Pence, and Chris Christie, and Tim Scott.
But none of those challengers stood a chance against Trump – who currently has 1,686 delegates. His closest opponent was Haley, who had just 94 delegates. She was the last challenger standing, but dropped out of the race after Super Tuesday.
RealClear Polling Says Trump Holds Slight Lead Over Biden
According to RealClear Polling averages, Trump currently has a 1.6-point advantage over Biden right now with 46.6% saying they would vote for Trump and 45.0% voting for Biden. The average takes into account results from more than nine different pollsters.
The Morning Consult, Daily Kos/Civiqs, and Reuters/Ipsos polls had Biden leading Trump, but his lead was no more than two points in each of those polls. A Grinnell/Selzer poll had Trump leading by seven points (45% to 38%), and a Forbes/HarrisX poll had Trump up by four points (52% to 48%).
The ‘Big Six’ Battleground States This Election Cycle
Every four years, there are a group of battleground states (also known as swing states) that play a large role in deciding who wins the presidential election. This year, those states are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada.
Trump won five of those states (all but Nevada) in 2016, but Biden swept all six states in 2020. If Trump wants to gain an advantage against Biden, it’s going to start in these states – though New Hampshire and North Carolina are also worth keeping an eye on.
Donald Trump Showing Strong Numbers In Michigan
A March survey by CNN is giving Trump voters a sense of hope in one of those key swing states. Of the more than 1,100 Michigan voters polled, 50% of them said they would vote for Trump. 42% said they would vote for Biden, and the remaining 8% are undecided.
If we were to add Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West to that poll, Trump would still gain 40% of the votes – and Biden would drop to 34%. Trump flipped Michigan in 2016, but Biden took it back in 2020.
New Poll Gives Closer Look At Swing States
A new poll conducted by Morning Consult for Bloomberg is giving us a clear look at where those swing states currently stand – and it appears Biden might be gaining some ground, especially in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Biden was four points behind Trump in Wisconsin in February, but he has since regained the lead in the Badger State. Biden is also neck-and-neck with Trump in Pennsylvania – after months of being behind in the key swing state.
Still, Trump Has Advantage Across All Swing States
While Biden is gaining support in swing states, it’s still not enough to overtake Trump. If you take a look at all seven swing states (including North Carolina), Trump currently leads Biden 47% to 43% – a sizeable lead for the former President.
Georgia is a state where Trump is gaining a ton of voters. He had a six-point lead in February (49% to Biden’s 43%), but that lead increased to seven points (49% to 42%) in March. He also leads in Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina.
Harvard-Harris Poll Says Democrats Are Changing Minds About Trump
In January 2020, only 14% of Democratic respondents said they approved of the job Donald Trump was doing as President of the United States. At the time, many Democrats were ready for a ‘blue’ President after living through four years of a ‘red’ President.
Now that those pollers have seen what four years of Biden has meant for America, some of them are changing their minds about the job Trump did while in office. Today, nearly 30% of Democratic respondents strongly or somewhat approve of Trump’s job as President.
Biden Gaining Support Among Democrats
Despite Trump gaining some much-needed support among Democrats, a strong majority of blue voters remain confident in what Joe Biden brings to the White House. As of right now, a whopping 84% of Democrats approve of Biden.
Not only that, but Democrat pollers agree that Biden is improving as President as we get closer to election day. According to March’s poll, 52% of Democrats say Biden is improving – a three-point uptick from just one month ago (when it was at 49%).
Some People Don’t Think It’s Democrats Vs. Republicans
Many experts agree that this year’s election is a little different than in the past – and it could have to do with the rising number of Democrats voting for Trump and Republicans voting for Biden – which shows that a lot of voters are changing their mindset.
Instead of it being a Democrat vs. Republican race, many people believe it’s a race between democracy (Biden’s America) and autocracy (Trump’s America) – especially with Trump declaring his intention to be a dictator on day one.
When Is Election Day?
The 2024 presidential election – the 60th presidential election in United States’ history – will take place on November 5, 2024. It’s set to be the seventh rematch in American history and first since 1956 – when Dwight D. Eisenhower defeated Adlai Stevenson II.
A win by Trump would make him the second president to serve a nonconsecutive term. Grover Cleveland was the only other former President to do so – he served as President from 1885 to 1889, and from 1893 to 1897.
