Texas hasn’t had a Democratic Senator since Bob Krueger in 1993, but are times changing in the Lone Star State? It’s unclear at the moment, but the 2024 US Senate election will tell all as Ted Cruz faces his most brutal battle yet – a flurry of Democrats poised to unseat the three-term Republican.
Let’s Meet The Democratic Candidates Opposing Ted Cruz In 2024
The 2024 race is heating up as we approach the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate Texas in less than two months. As of right now, voters will see nine names on that ballot, but two of those names stand out above the rest – Colin Allred and Roland Gutierrez.
Both have deep connections, both have a lot of support, and both are racking in donations as they prepare for what could be a very close primary – with a potential run-off if it gets too close. And when it comes time, they both have a shot at ending Ted Cruz’s 18-year streak as Senator.
Colin Allred Boasts Bipartisanship And Donations
Colin Allred is a name sports fans will recognize – he was a linebacker for the Tennessee Titans between 2006 and 2010 – but he turned to law school after retiring from football. Now, he’s a member of the House of Representatives from Texas’s 32nd district.
Allred has built a name for himself as one of the most bipartisan members of the House – earning that distinction last year from the Common Ground Committee. According to OpenSecret, he has raised more than $13 million and still has nearly $8 million cash on hand.
Roland Gutierrez Boasts Relatability And Resonance
Roland Gutierrez is another Democrat earning a lot of respect in the Texas community – nationwide, really. He’s a current member of the Texas Senate (19th district; since 2021) and a former member of the House of Representatives (119th district; 2008-2021).
His current district includes Uvalde, Texas – the sight of a tragic mass shooting in May 2022, which resulted in 21 fatalities (19 students, 2 teachers) and 17 injuries. Gutierrez gained a lot of respect for his leadership and commitment to gun reform during what was (and still is) a crucial moment in US history.
Cruz Projected To Face Allred In 2024 Senate Race
A new poll by Emerson College (published in January 2024) is giving Texans a look at how this year’s Senate race is shaping up – and it appears Democratic voters are leaning towards a showdown between Ted Cruz and Colin Allred. Unfortunately, this could mean trouble for Cruz.
The poll says 29% of Democratic voters are currently in favor of Allred opposing Cruz, while only 7% are in favor of Gutierrez. Another surprising metric – Nueces County District Attorney Mark Gonzalez is emerging as a clear No. 3 behind Allred and Gutierrez, currently polling at 6%.
Plurality Of Voters Remain Undecided, But They Hold The Answer
Allred might have the early lead, but the Democratic primary will ultimately come down to a plurality of undecided voters. According to the poll, more than one-third of Democratic voters are undecided – including large portions of Hispanic Democrats, Gen Z and Millennial voters, and those without a college degree.
These groups of people will ultimately decide how close the Texas primary is – and whether Gutierrez or Gonzalez can force a runoff in March. Then again, Allred can quickly run away with this race if he can appeal to these voters the way he has with many others.
What Does A Potential Cruz Vs. Allred Race Look Like?
It doesn’t seem to matter who comes out of the Democratic primary victorious – Ted Cruz is in jeopardy of losing his seat either way! In a hypothetical showdown between Allred and Cruz, the poll shows a near-tie – 42% supporting Cruz, 40% supporting Allred, and 8% supporting someone else.
Even if Roland Gutierrez wins the Democratic candidacy, the numbers are eerily similar – 41% supporting Cruz, 40% supporting Gutierrez, and 8% supporting someone else. Texas could be in for a very close primary, followed by an even closer Senate election.
Seniors, Men, And White Voters Are Favoring Cruz
In the general election, Cruz is polling well among white voters – outdueling Allred by 23 points (55% to 32%). He also has the support of voters in their 50s (46% to 37%), in their 60s (54% to 41%), those above the age of 70 (53% to 40%), and men voters (50% to 37%).
White voters make up roughly 40% of Texas’s population, but people over the age of 65 only make up 13% of the population. Cruz needs to find support from other voters if he wants to take on someone with the type of support that Allred has.
Women, Hispanic, and Young Voters Are Favoring Allred
According to the poll, Allred is polling extremely well among Hispanic voters – beating Cruz by 24 points (50% to 26%). He owns a narrow lead among women voters (43% to 36%) and voters in their 40s (43% to 36%), in their 30s (41% to 30%), and those under the age of 30 (41% to 25%).
Hispanic voters are going to be key in the general election – they make up more than 40% of the Texas population! While Cruz still has to gain the full support of Democratic Hispanic voters, he can do that in the primary – giving him a much-needed edge over Cruz.
When Was The Emerson College Survey Conducted?
In the interest of full transparency, the poll by Emerson College – and sponsored by Nexstar Media Texas – was conducted over a three-day period between January 13 and 15, 2024. More than 1,300 registered voters were polled – including 460 Democratic Primary voters.
Emerson College claimed a credibility interval of +/- 2.6 percentage points, closely resembling a poll’s margin of error. The results don’t tell what’s going to happen, but give voters a brief idea of where things currently stand and how voters are thinking right now.
Latinos Make Up 40% Of The Texas Population
The Latino community is playing a major role in the 2024 general election – not just in Texas, but across the nation. New research suggests that 1 in every 5 people in the US is Hispanic, and they make up the second-largest group of voters in America.
As stated earlier, Hispanics make up 40% of the population in Texas – winning their vote could be a deciding factor in this year’s election. And gaining their trust now will bode well in the future – as the Hispanic population shows no sign of slowing down in the near future.
Cruz Raising Funds, But Facing An Uphill Battle In 2024
Ted Cruz continues to raise money in preparation for the months that follow – which is good, considering the donations that are pouring in for Colin Allred. Most recently, Cruz announced $5.5 million in donations collected during the fourth quarter 2023 – $700,000 more than Allred.
It should be noted that Cruz’s $5.5 million is spread out across three different accounts – Ted Cruz for Senate, Ted Cruz Victory Committee, and Jobs, Freedom & Security PAC. The Texas Tribune reported that he ended the year with more than $7 million in those accounts.
Is This Reminiscent Of 2018’s Close Senate Race?
If we’re talking about money, it’s hard to imagine the 2024 race being anything like the 2018 Senate race between Ted Cruz and Beto O’Rourke. The two raised more than $109 million (combined), with O’Rourke raising more than $70 million and Cruz raising north of $30 million.
O’Rourke’s efforts weren’t enough, as Cruz walked away with a third term in what was a very close race. Cruz finished with 4.26 million votes (50.89%), while O’Rourke finished with 4.05 million votes (48.33%). They broke an all-time record for the most money raised and spent by two Senate candidates.
When Is Voting Day In Texas?
There are two major elections coming up for Texas voters – the democratic primary and the general election. The Democratic primary is taking place on March 5, 2024 and will determine the Democratic candidate – likely Colin Allred or Roland Gutierrez – opposing Cruz later in the year.
The general election – which is set to take place on November 5 – is what really matters. Not only will we be selecting a new (or returning) President of the United States, but Texas will decide whether it’ll remain a red state or transition to a purple state for the next two years.
What Are The Top Issues Among Texans Right Now?
According to Emerson College, the primary issues facing Texans right now include immigration, border security, the economy, healthcare, education, abortion access, crime, and threats to democracy. Candidates who appeal to these categories are sure to gain a lot of support in this year’s elections.
Of those categories, immigration, border security, and economy are the three most significant. Voters want someone who’s willing to stand up to the President’s administration on key issues, but also someone who’s willing to work with fellow US Senator from Texas, John Cornyn.
How Will Texas Vote In The 2024 Presidential Election?
With Texas split between voting for Cruz or a Democratic candidate, does that change anything for the general election in November? Well, one thing is for certain – Texas likes Donald Trump (69%) as the Republican candidate and Joe Biden (72%) as the Democratic candidate.
When the two went head-to-head in 2019, Trump emerged victorious in Texas with 5.89 million votes (52.1%) – compared to Biden’s 5.26 million votes (46.5%). Fast forward to now, it appears voters’ minds haven’t changed – a hypothetical rematch is favoring Trump at 49% and Biden at 41% in Texas.
