Donald Trump is going to win the Republican nomination for the presidency easily. But according to some experts, that doesn’t necessarily mean that he’s going to skate through the general election. Primary results in several key states could point to trouble for the troubled ex-President.
Trump’s Super Tuesday Results
The Trump campaign got a lot of good news on Super Tuesday. The ex-President won 14 out of 15 contests. The only state where he couldn’t claim victory was Vermont. Nikki Haley, who served as the United States’ Ambassador to the UN, won there.
The victory for Haley wasn’t enough to keep her in the race. She announced on Wednesday that she would be suspending her campaign. She may still be hoping that her 89 delegates could be significant in the event Trump is convicted on one or more felony charges.
The Lincoln Project’s Plans For 2024
One of the biggest news stories after Super Tuesday involved the Lincoln Project. The organization was founded in 2018 by a group of “never Trumpers” that included Republican political strategist Rick Wilson.
Wilson told MSNBC on Tuesday that the Lincoln Project is using the primaries to gather data on how to beat Trump in the general election in November. They see weakness in his numbers and they’re paying close attention to the primaries.
Which States Will The Lincoln Project Focus On?
Wilson plans to focus his attention on two key states that Trump won in 2016: Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. He said in an interview, “We think he’s weaker than he was in 2020 in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, particularly in those two states.”
It’s unlikely that Trump can retake the presidency without those two states. Both are industrial states with large blue collar populations that favored Trump in 2016. He lost both states to President Joe Biden in 2020. Wilson thinks he’ll lose again.
How Did Trump Do In Pennsylvania In 2020?
Let’s start with Pennsylvania. Trump won the state by a measly 0.7% in 2016. He lost it by 1.2% to Joe Biden in 2020. Many saw Trump’s victory in Pennsylvania as the tipping point in the 2016 election, where Hillary Clinton was projected to win.
It’s a popular opinion that Trump can’t win the general election in 2024 without Pennsylvania. It’s a swing state that has more frequently gone for Democrats in recent history. Trump’s 2016 victory was an upset and Wilson thinks he can make a difference.
What About Wisconsin?
Wisconsin was another important swing state in both 2016 and 2020. In 2016, Trump won the rust belt state by a narrow margin, just 0.2%. The Wolverine State was a focus in the election tampering charges levied against Trump.
In 2020, Wisconsin flipped back into the Democrats’ column. President Joe Biden won by 2.8%, a much larger margin than Trump earned in 2016. Here again, Wilson thinks that Trump might underperform. The Lincoln Project wants to ensure that he does.
Who Is Wilson Hoping To Influence?
Wilson’s focus is on reaching soft Republican voters, meaning those who have traditionally voted for Republicans but may not be fully on board with the party’s platform. He also believes he can reach independents who have previously voted for Trump.
Recent polls have shown that many of the people who have already voted for Trump in the primaries may not vote for him in the general election. These people may be swayed to vote for Biden or a third party candidate instead of Trump.
What Tactics Will The Lincoln Project Use?
The Lincoln Project has been creating and running anti-Trump ads since 2018. They are committed to stopping Trump from being elected again. They often use a sarcastic or comical tone to engage with voters once the general election campaign begins.
Wilson has said that The Lincoln Project will use “suite of voter contact techniques” to influence voters to vote for anyone other than Trump. He specifically mentioned cable ads and digital ads as part of his plan to keep Trump out of the White House.
When Are The Pennsylvania And Wisconsin Primaries?
Super Tuesday just happened this week. While Trump appears to be a shoo-in for the nomination, there are still primaries to be held. The final primaries of the 2024 season won’t happen until this June and the parties’ conventions are this summer.
The Wisconsin presidential primary will be held on Tuesday, April 2. The Pennsylvania primary will be held three weeks later, on April 23. The Lincoln Project will be watching the results closely and using data to target soft Trump voters.
Are There Any Other States Where Trump Is Slipping?
Wilson and The Lincoln Project are focusing on Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. But, there are at least five other states where they think they see a weakening in Trump’s support – and they’ll be watching those primaries just as closely.
Wilson said, “Everyone knows what the target list is: Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are the top four. Below that are North Carolina, Georgia and Nevada, but in that top four – in a particular Pennsylvania – he has really lost an edge.”
The Nikki Haley Factor
One of the biggest wild card factors in the primaries so far has been the presence of Nikki Haley as Trump’s longest-running opponent this year. She had said prior to Super Tuesday that she wouldn’t drop out of the race.
Wilson has pointed to Haley as an alternative for Republican voters who can’t stomach Trump. Haley suspended her campaign on March 6. Some think her 89 delegates could still play a role depending on what happens with Trump’s felony indictments.
Could Trump Still Lose The Nomination?
Could Donald Trump still lose the Republican nomination? He’s already got most of the delegates he needs but this is an unusual election year. Remember, the twice-impeached ex-President has been indicted on 91 felony charges.
There are a lot of voters who say they won’t vote for Trump in November. Even Republicans say they’ll steer clear if he’s convicted of anything. Ultimately, Trump’s delegates could choose to vote for another candidate if that happens.
What Factors Will Impact The Election?
You might be wondering which factors will impact the 2024 presidential election. There are a lot. Both major party candidates are old and there are a lot of voters who wish they had younger candidates to vote for. Both candidates have had their mental acuity called into question.
Some of the other factors that may come into play include the economy, inflation, and the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas. The overturning of Roe v Wade continues to be a factor for many women who want their rights restored.
Which States Will Decide The 2024 Election?
In the end, it’s likely that victory in the 2024 election will come down to a few key states. The Lincoln Project thinks that Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are key. An upset in any red state could be enough to ensure Joe Biden’s reelection.
As much as we’d like to predict who will win the election, it’s impossible to say at this point. Polling shows Biden and Trump running neck-and-neck. Voters will have the ultimate say and there are eight months to go until we’ll know the results.
