The 2024 presidential race is heating up as two new national polls show President Joe Biden edging ahead of former President Donald Trump just eight months before the election.
Though the margins are narrow, the numbers are the latest sign that Biden could repeat his 2020 victory if the two face off again in November.
Biden Takes Lead in Two New Polls
A Reuters/Ipsos poll of 3,356 registered voters found Biden would get 39% of the vote while Trump would get 38%. The poll was conducted between March 7 and 13 and has a margin of error of +/- 1.8%.
A Civiqs/Daily Kos poll of 1,324 registered voters gave Biden 45% of the vote to Trump’s 44%. The survey was conducted between March 9 and March 12 and has a margin of error of +/- 2.8%.
Biden Gains a Steady Momentum
The polls came after Biden delivered his State of the Union speech last week, which received positive reviews.
He announced plans for the U.S. military to build a temporary pier on the Gaza coast to allow more humanitarian aid to reach the region.
The Election Race Remains Tight
A March 3 to 5 poll of 1,450 registered voters by YouGov forecasts Trump to get 44% of the vote share to Biden’s 42%.
Meanwhile, Biden’s approval rating stands at 38.4%, with 55.7% of voters disapproving of him on March 13, according to poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight.
The Win Could Go Either Way With How It Is
With eight months until the election and margins so tight, the race could still go either way. Trump faces a lot of legal hurdles, while Biden still has to prove himself.
Speaking about other polls showing Biden ahead, Heath Brown, an associate professor of public policy at City University of New York, said: “I wouldn’t invest too much in any given poll or even a handful of polls.
Biden’s State of the Union Speech Gets Good Reviews
Joe Biden delivered his first State of the Union address last week to largely positive reviews. According to experts and public opinion polls, the speech was well-received.
During his address, the 81-year-old Biden directly addressed concerns some have expressed about his age and mental fitness for the presidency. “In my career, I’ve been told I’m too young, and I’m too old,” he said.
Announcing New Initiatives At The State of The Union Address
The President used the speech to announce several new policy initiatives, including plans deliver humanitarian aid to the Palestinian territory.
He also proposed new investments in scientific research, called for police reform, and pushed Congress to act on gun control legislation.
A Liberal Wish List By Biden
However, Biden’s political opponents argue that his policy proposals are too expensive and go too far in expanding government.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell called the speech “a liberal wish list of big government waste.” The split reactions reflect the deep partisan divide in U.S. politics.
Biden Announces Gaza Pier to Allow More Humanitarian Aid
Biden announced this week that the U.S. military will construct a temporary pier along the Gaza coastline to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid to the region.
The pier will provide docking space for ships carrying supplies like food, medicine, and building materials that are in short supply.
A Temporary Solution but a Solution Nonetheless
According to administration officials, the pier is a temporary solution to address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza while a more permanent truce and trade agreements are negotiated between Israel and Hamas.
Although the U.S. considers Hamas a terrorist organization, the Biden administration is working with intermediaries to establish a longer-term ceasefire and find ways to improve living conditions for Gaza’s 2 million residents.
Age Verses Experience
Biden’s State of the Union speech aimed to highlight his experience and wisdom as a counterbalance to concerns over his advancing years.
If Biden can continue to make the case that age brings wisdom and judgment, voters may be willing to look past concerns over his age and mental fitness.
Other Polls Show Mixed Results for Biden vs. Trump
According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, Biden would receive 39% of the vote compared to 38% for Trump.
Another poll by Civiqs/Daily Kos gave the Democrat 45% support versus 44% for the Republican. However, a YouGov poll predicted that Trump would get 44% of the vote share compared to Biden’s 42%.
Biden’s Approval Rating Stands at 38.4%
Biden’s approval rating currently stands at 38.4%, indicating over half of voters disapprove of his performance.
However, Biden received positive reviews for his recent State of the Union address, where he announced plans to provide humanitarian aid to Gaza and addressed concerns about his age, stating, “Whether young or old, I’ve always known what endures.”
The Ultimate Outcome Depends on Key Factors
With eight months until the election, the outcome will depend on several factors. Trump faces four criminal indictments, which could impact his campaign.
Voters will also judge Biden’s policies and performance. Events like debates, campaigns, and world events can sway public opinion.
Tight Margins, but That is All It Could Come Down To
New polls indicate Biden may have a slight edge over Trump at this stage of the race. But with the margins razor thin and still eight months until Election Day, it’s far too early to call a winner. This rematch is poised to go down to the wire.
Voters are split, and both candidates have liabilities that could shift the tide. The only certainty is this will be another hard-fought presidential contest.
