As we inch closer and closer to the 2024 presidential elections, the question of ‘can Biden still win’ has become the talk of the town. The early election polls can be a strong indicator of what November holds for us. Although it’s too early to predict something, there are some powerful signs showing risks for Biden’s comeback.
Is Joe Biden Ahead of Donald Trump?
The current president of America has seen ahead of the Republican nominee, Donald Trump, in the recent polling results.
According to the survey done by Morning Consult, the incumbent president is leading with 44 percent of the vote share. On the other hand, Trump received 42 percent of the vote. Time will tell if Biden can maintain this 2-point lead till the presidential elections.
The Approval Rating of Joe Biden
As we’re months away from presidential elections, the early polls have started measuring different aspects to predict the results.
One such polling was done by FiveThirtyEight in which Biden’s favorability or approval was questioned. Surprisingly, 40% approved of him as the next president, while 60% disapproved of his job.
Biden Against Third-Party Independent Candidates
While the hot topic is Biden VS Trump, there are some other characters in the story. The presidential election is a five-way race that is expanded to include independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
When the national survey was done against all five candidates, Trump took the lead with a 41% vote. Biden received 38%, Kennedy 14%, West 5%, and Stein was the choice of 2%.
The Abandoning of No Labels from Presidential Bid
Talking about the third-party candidates, No Labels, the centrist political group, announced on Thursday that they couldn’t find a credible candidate to lead their unity ticket.
Whatever the reason is, their drop from the White House bid is a positive sign for Joe Biden as Democrats got more chances of winning the Presidential Elections 2024.
Can Biden’s Age Lower His Chances of Comeback?
Although there is no maximum age limit to become a president, the 81-year-old Joe Biden is at a grave threat owing to his elderly look.
According to a survey done by the New York Times/Siena College, the majority of his voters think that he is too old to be an effective president. Hence, the age issue can influence his re-election bid.
The Biggest Weakness of Joe Biden
To become an ideal president, you have to consider every minute issue in the state. By far, Biden’s biggest weakness is maintaining a stable economy.
Since September, the economic conditions have improved to an extent, but Trump still holds the key to maintaining a strong economy in the state. With the rise in immigration, Biden is at a greater risk of losing elections if economic perception is taken into consideration.
Where Biden Stands Among Black and Young Americans?
To his bad luck, the oldest president of America is approximately at the same spot as he was last year among a specific group of people.
To be precise, Biden’s approval has dropped slightly among Black, Hispanic, and Younger Americans.
How Well Biden Can Handle International Issues?
Amidst the current war between Israel and Hamas, it would be a great challenge for Biden to maintain his viewpoints and stand against genocide.
In a survey where people were asked how well Biden can handle international issues, 25% stated that they don’t find him capable of managing large-scale fights.
Expert Perspective
Speaking to Newsweek, Mark Shanahan he called the Presidential Elections 2024 a close race with two flawed candidates leading their territory.
He added, “At the moment, Biden is polling negatively on his perceived lack of leadership in the Gaza war, while Trump remains mired in his legal travails. It’s likely the November winner will be the candidate facing the least-worst issues in the minds of voters by the time November rolls around.”
Prediction by Big Village
To hype up the election talk, a poll was conducted by Big Village on March 8 to 13. They predicted Trump will get 41 percent of the vote while Biden will get 40 percent.
Another survey was conducted within the same timeframe with 1,628 registered voters. The results forecasted that the Republican Presidential candidate will get 39 percent of the vote share while Democrat nominee, Joe Biden will get 37 percent.
Head-to-head National Polls
To precisely predict Biden’s success, head-to-head national polls are conducted to see which candidate stands tall in public.
Unfortunately, the results are not comforting for Biden as Trump leads on national polls. Although the lead is just 1 point, it can change the results in the upcoming days.
What Does the Swing State Polling Indicate?
As the presidential elections are decided by every member of the state, a Swing State Polling was conducted to see the results.
In Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, Trump took the lead by a sizable margin. However, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin resulted in a tie. If Biden has to win, he needs to get support from the later three states at least.
Certainty of Voting by Party Identification
When voters were asked to give their opinion based on party identification, they showed tremendous results in the February and March national surveys.
Republicans, supported by Donald Trump, slipped by 5 percentage points, while Democrats, favored by Biden, rose by 2 percentage points. Hence, Biden has an advantage over Republicans here.
What November Holds for Joe Biden?
The polling results and national surveys are just indicators giving signs about the certainty of winning or losing. Considering the polls, it can be stated that Joe Biden is at a 50-50 stake in making a comeback as the oldest president of the United States.
He still needs to handle political extremism, inflation rates, economic conditions, and international issues to be a strong candidate for presidency. As November is approaching, we can only guess what will happen on the main day of the Presidential Elections in 2024. Does Biden bounce back, or does he have to wait for another turn? Only time will tell!
