A new poll released by Quinnipiac University has President Biden leading in a hypothetical contest with former president Trump. Biden led Trump by a narrow margin of four points with Biden getting 49 percent of the votes to Trump’s 45 percent. This compares to Quinnipiac’s last polls last month when Biden had 50 percent of votes while Trump had 44%.
In the latest poll, the majority of Democrats backed Biden (93 – 4 percent), while Republicans favored Trump (91 – 7 percent). Votes from Independents were almost evenly split, with 44 percent supporting Biden and 42 percent supporting Trump.
How The Votes Stacked Up
With the inclusion of independent and Green Party candidates, Biden pooled 38 percent of the votes while Trump garnered 37 percent support. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. received 15 percent of the votes, Cornel West received 3 percent support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein received 3 percent of the total votes.
A total of 1,421 registered voters nationwide participated in the hypothetical polls. The poll also had a margin of error at 2.6 percentage points, meaning that Biden’s lead fell outside of the margin.
Age Factor: Biden Vs. Trump
The poll also covered the voter’s perception of the candidate’s suitability to serve based on their age, and mental and physical profile. 67-31 percent of voters believe President Joe Biden is too old to serve another 4-year term, while for Donald Trump, 57-41 percent think he is the right fit.
No surprises here, Biden is currently 81 years and Trump is 77. This shows a change from the recent Quinnipiac University’s September 2023 poll, where for Biden, it was 68-28 percent, and for Trump, it was 63-34 percent.
Mental And Physical Capacity
On their mental and physical capacity to serve a second term, 35% of voters believe Biden is physically up for the job while 62% think otherwise. In comparison, 60% of respondents expressed confidence in Trump’s abilities while 37% disagreed.
In terms of mental fitness, 34% of voters believe Biden is mentally fit for the role while 64% expressed doubts. For Trump, 48% of respondents believe he’s mentally fit for the task compared to 51% that don’t.
Trump vs. Biden On Ethics
America’s president must have the right ethics, empathy, and temperament. The polls also had a category for voters to pick based on both candidate’s suitability based on these attributes.
On ethics, 49% of voters believe Biden’s ethics are sound for the role while 47% don’t. Conversely, only 29% of voters trust Trump’s ethics with a whooping 68% expressing disagreement.
Biden Vs. Trump On Empathy And Temperament
In terms of empathy, 51% of voters think that Biden embodies this trait better while 47% don’t. For Trump, 42 percent were of the opinion that he cared about average Americans, while 57 percent disagreed.
Opinions were more evenly split when it came to whether or not Biden has the right personality and temperament for service. 49 percent affirmed that he’s the right fit with 50 percent negating this quality. However, for Trump, only 37 percent believed he had the necessary personality and temperament, while 61 percent disagreed.
Biden Vs. Haley
The poll also featured a hypothetical general election matchup between President Biden and Republican presidential hopeful Nikki Haley. Haley a former United Nations Ambassador and South Carolina Governor had 46 percent of voters support her while 43 percent backed Biden.
With independent and Green Party candidates included in the mix, Biden has 35 percent support, and Haley has 27 percent support. Kennedy comes close at 24 percent support, West receives 5 percent support, and Stein sits at the bottom with 3 percent support.
Exploring 2024 Primary Speculations
The speculative polls also covered voters’ thoughts on the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. 80 percent of Republican and Republican supporters back Trump while 17 percent are in support of Haley.
For the Democratic presidential primaries, 80 percent of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters chose Biden as their preferred candidate. A meager 15 percent are in support of U.S. Representative from Minnesota Dean Phillips.
Voters Opinion On The Most Important Concerns
Respondents were also given a list of 10 issues and asked which one was the most important, 21 percent of voters think preserving democracy in the United States is of utmost priority. Another 20 percent say the economy, 17 percent say immigration, and 10 percent say gun violence. No other issue reached double digits.
Among Republicans, 35% say immigration is the priority. Next up is the economy (24%) while 13% went for preserving democracy in the U.S. Among Democrats, the priority is preserving democracy (32 percent) followed by gun violence (17%) and then the economy (10%). The economy is a priority for Independents (24%) followed by preserving democracy (18%). 16 percent went with immigration.
Biden’s Job Approvals
President Biden had a negative job approval rating of 40 to 57 percent from voters. On his response to Ukraine’s invasion by Russia, 47% believe he’s made the right decisions while 48 percent disapprove. Regarding the economy, 42% are in support, while 55% disapprove.
On foreign policy, 36% approve, while 60% don’t. On his steps to address gun violence, 32% are in support, while 59% are not. On southern border policies, 29% approve of his decisions while 63% don’t. As regards the response to the war between Israel and Hamas, 31 percent approve, while 62 percent disapprove.
Pioneering Non-Partisan Insights Since 1994
The Quinnipiac University Poll is directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. Since 1994, it has conducted independent, non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues.
The site states that “Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.”
Key Statistics From The Quinnipiac University Poll
The poll had 1,421 registered voters nationwide. The survey started on February 15th and ended on February 19th. It had a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points.
The poll surveyed 576 Republican and Republican-leaning voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. It also had 624 Democratic and Democratic-leaning respondents with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points.
