2023 was a wild year for a lot of people. It was also a wild year in terms of the world, what we experienced and saw throughout the months. Israel went to war with Hamas, Trump was indicted four times, and the war between Russia and Ukraine hit its second anniversary. With such a milestone year behind us, it’s time to look ahead and consider what might happen in 2024.
1. The United States Economy Will Continue to Improve
By every objective measure, the United States economy is doing better than almost every other developed nation in the world. Inflation is lower than any other country, our GDP grew, and even consumer confidence has started to rise after a fairly dismal beginning of the year.
In fact, at the end of 2023, holiday shopping shot up, and the general opinion of the economy started to improve. While there are still many who claim that they were better off before 2023, by mid-2024 that perception will catch up with the reality of the state of the economy.
2. “Bidenomics” Will Thrive
Messaging between the White House and the public on the economy took a hit during 2023, despite the White House trying to push the “Bidenomics” angle. While it is true that the economy is objectively doing great, there were many who simply didn’t feel that it was reflecting in their everyday lives.
As the fear of recession diminishes, though, the White House has an opportunity to push the Bidenomics angle again. This could be especially beneficial in an election year, when Biden can run on the strength of the economy in his bid for reelection. The economy is doing well, so it’s up to the White House to push the strength of “Bidenomics.”
3. The House of Representatives Will Push President Biden’s Impeachment
Despite no evidence to support it, in 2024 the House of Representatives will push for an impeachment vote on President Biden. They’ve already hinted that this is on the horizon, with a full house vote on an impeachment inquiry passing through before they took their winter break in November.
The push for Biden’s impeachment is done at Trump’s behest and pushed by his loyalists in Congress. Whether Republicans are simply trying to get back at Democrats for impeaching Trump – twice – or are trying to push a political message to their constituents ahead of election season, the impeachment vote will be as politically pointless as the investigation has been.
4. Republicans Will Lose the House of Representatives
This current Congress has faced scandal after scandal after delay after delay. The Republican-led House of Representatives alone has been faced with infighting and controversy, and that is what is going to lead to them losing the House in the 2024 election.
Between the weeks of delay around electing a speaker of the house – twice – and the constant controversy and discourse around certain members, the House has not behooved itself to the American public. Indeed, even Chip Roy (R-TX) lost his temper with his colleagues, telling them that they hadn’t given him anything to run on in this coming election. Yikes.
5. Speaker Mike Johnson Won’t Be Removed
Despite the controversy around his appointment and his deep unpopularity even among his own party, Mike Johnson won’t be removed from the Speakership before the 2024 election. There’s no obvious replacement for him if he was removed, and the Republicans are on thin enough ice as it is.
Even the funding bills that are currently causing infighting among Republicans won’t lose Johnson his position. Instead, the Republicans will vote into place a continuing resolution on funding throughout 2024 in an effort to punt the issue of government spending and international aid to the next Congress, and avoid the controversy altogether.
6. The Senate Will Come to a 50-50 Split
The 2024 election season is a challenging one for democrats in the Senate. There are 33 seats up for reelection, and many of them are in safe Republican districts. Democrats are slated to lose a seat in West Virginia, as it’s safe to assume that Joe Manchin’s seat will be filled by a Republican.
In Arizona, too, the Senate seat looks to be facing a three-way race between incumbent Kyrsten Sinema, and Republican and Democrat primary challengers alike. With the uncertainty around Senate races around the entire country, we predict that the dust will settle and the Senate will find itself, again, in a 50-50 split.
7. Ukraine and Israel Aid Will Both Be Approved
Despite the bickering between Democrats and Republicans in Congress, most everyone can agree that funding both Ukraine and Israel is in the best interest of the United States. Ensuring Russia cannot overtake Ukraine is in the best interest of the world, and supporting Israel as our ally is in the best interest of our political relationships.
Because the pros so far outweigh the cons, after the House of Representatives come back from their Christmas break in January, they’ll take up the issue of funding again. They’ll likely fight and try to make an issue of the funding, the way they have the last several months, but funding will ultimately be approved.
8. Trump Will Continue to Reign Over Headlines
Controversy gets clicks, and so does current events. Donald Trump is the living embodiment of both of those conversations. Between his presidential campaign, the candidates running against him, and the various legal troubles that he’s current struggling with, in 2024 Trump will continue to provide endless media fodder.
Particularly with his upcoming court dates in the January 6 case, the documents case, and the New York cases, there will be no shortage of news around Trump. He’s overtaken other headline news in the past, and will continue to do so over the coming months as the 2024 presidential election looms.
9. The Supreme Court Will Rule That Trump is NOT Immune From Criminal Prosecution
Trump’s claim of immunity against criminal prosecution during his presidency is a laughable argument. It’s another of his delay tactics, and one could argue that it’s a political position as well. He doesn’t need to convince the Supreme Court of his innocence, only the voters who might put him back in the White House.
The argument didn’t work for Nixon, though, and it certainly won’t work for Trump. Though the full scope of evidence against Trump has yet to be revealed, it’s certain that the Supreme Court won’t want to set a precedent by allowing presidential immunity to apply to criminal activity. Trump’s tactic will fail, and the justice system will continue as it always has.
10. The Supreme Court Will Avoid Banning Trump From the Ballot
A Supreme Court as mired in controversy as this one can’t afford any more black marks. Between the Dobbs decision and the financial controversy around Clarence Thomas and Harlan Crowe, the Supreme Court is facing a serious crisis in the form of nasty public opinion.
Because of this, when the Colorado case is brought in front of the Supreme Court, they will avoid further controversy by choosing to overturn the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision to remove Trump from the ballot. They’ll see it as the safe option, but it has the potential of further dividing an already contentious voting populace.
11. Trump Will Try to Delay the January 6 Case
We’ve already seen Trump and his legal team work to have his insurrection case delayed. His lawyers initially asked for the start date of his trial to be long after the 2024 election, when it would be possible for Trump to pardon himself if the election goes his way.
That tactic didn’t work, but that doesn’t mean he won’t continue to try. Every new filing from his legal team has come up with new reasons why Trump can’t appear in court when Judge Chutkan asked him to. It appears that Chutkan is growing tired of his tactics, but that doesn’t mean that Trump won’t continue to push his luck.
12. Jack Smith Will Have a Golden Goose
In the months since Jack Smith was assigned as Special Counsel over the January 6 case, he has proven himself to be a careful and methodical prosecutor. Each new piece of information that comes to light regarding the investigation has only emphasized exactly how many pieces of the puzzle Jack Smith holds.
Because of the drip, drip, drip of information that has come through the media about the case, it is all but guaranteed that Jack Smith is still holding onto his ace card. Everything that we know about the man says that he’s a very careful person, and there’s no way that he would bring a case against a former president of the United States if he wasn’t certain that he would get a conviction.
13. Trump’s Delay Tactics Will Run Dry
Trump’s favorite tactic when faced with prosecution is to delay, delay, delay. And so far, it’s worked. He’s managed to wiggle his way out of prosecution by filing bogus delays and lawsuits in the past, and he’s trying the same tactics with his January 6 case.
Eventually, though, his delay tactics will run out, and he will be faced with two options: either face trial like any other citizen, or cut a deal. At this point, it’s anybody’s guess whether he’ll attempt to double down on his lies and rhetoric in a courtroom, or he’ll take a plea deal in order to avoid his day in court.
14.The January 6 Trial Will Not Go in Trump’s Favor
The January 6 trial – the big one, the one that questions Trump’s true actions and motivations regarding the alleged insurrection against the United States – is stacked against Trump from the get-go. It takes place in the District of Columbia circuit court, which is majority people of color. This means that the majority of his jury is like to be people of color, which immediately doesn’t bode well for Trump.
Additionally, Judge Chutkan, who is assigned to the case, already has a history of particularly harsh judgements against individuals who participated in January 6. She has already seen over and ruled in several cases against January 6 defendants, and ultimately ruled for harsher punishments than the prosecution asked for. Should Trump make it to trial, it’s safe to assume that he would be no different.
15. Trump Will Take a Plea Deal
In order to avoid the embarrassment of being forced to sit through a criminal public trial and the potential jail time that could come with a conviction, we think that it’s much more likely that Trump will sit down with Jack Smith and work out a plea deal.
Indeed, Trump could even go so far as to work out a collective plea deal for all of the cases against him in order to avoid further legal troubles. Whether Jack Smith would go for an arrangement of that sort remains to be seen, but if Trump does plea out, likely it would involve forfeiting his presidential campaign and accepting responsibility for January 6.
16. Republicans Will Choose a Different Nominee For President
Trump is far too controversial as a candidate for the mainstream Republican establishment to throw their support and money behind in 2024. He’s a much different candidate now than he was in 2016, and it shows. His energy is lower, he’s not putting in as much effort, and enthusiasm for his campaign is waning.
At the same time, interest in candidates like Nikki Haley is increasing. Haley has recently secured the support of big GOP financiers like the Koch Network, making her a formidable opponent to the legally challenged Trump. The RNC will likely look at Trump’s legal troubles as the final nail in the coffin, and formally go with a safer candidate like Haley.
17. Claudine Gay Will Be Removed From Harvard
The controversial head of Harvard University will lose her position by the end of the year, as she is wracked with scandal after scandal. Ms. Gay has been credibly accused of plagiarizing her doctoral dissertation and other works that she has published, and the news has brought fire down on the accredited institution of Harvard.
While the investigation into the accusations is ongoing, we see it likely that the situation will go one of two ways: either Ms. Gay will gracefully take her leave of her position at Harvard in an attempt to save both hers and the university’s reputation, or she’ll wait it out until the bitter end. The latter option involves a lengthy investigation, continuing news stories, and likely further scandal before she’s ultimately let go from her position.
18. The Supreme Court Will Limit the Use of Mifepristone
Despite the controversy surrounding the Dobb’s decision, yet again the Supreme Court finds themselves as the final voice in the conversation around reproductive rights. This time, the conversation circles the use of mifepristone, a medication that is used in medication abortions. Pro-life groups want to ban the use of the medication altogether, and conflicting opinions issued around the county have required the Supreme Court to step in yet again.
Following the pattern created by the 2022 Dobbs decision, this heavily conservative Supreme Court will rule against Mifepristone, though the question remains whether they will ban it altogether, or simply restrict its usage. In doing so, they’ll inflame a good number of women ahead of the 2024 election, driving turnout in droves that will – for the most part – work in Democrat’s favor.
19. Tom Suozzi Will Win George Santos’ Seat
George Santos’ scandal-embroiled term ended with him being kicked out of the House of Representatives, and now the clear frontrunner for the seat in February’s special election in Tom Suozzi. Suozzi previously held the seat but left in 2023 to run for governor, losing the primary election to Kathy Hochul.
He’s officially running for his vacated seat again, and he is a shoe-in against the Republican-nominated challenger, Mazi Pilip. Pilip is a newcomer in politics, one who has never held a federal office before, and against the veteran Suozzi, it’s clear who will turn out the winner of this particular race.
20. 2024 Will Be the Hottest Year On Record
The environment has been a hot button topic for the last several years. Between Trump’s decision to pull the United States out of the Paris Climate agreement and the United Kingdom voting on the future of the European Green Deal, the environment is both an existential and political issue, a fact that isn’t going to change.
Because of warring policies around the environment and green energy, world governments haven’t taken the steps necessary to mitigating greenhouse gasses in the way that they need to. Because of this, environmental scientists predict that 2024 will be the hottest year on record across the board, with the potential for things to become much, much worse if things don’t change, and fast.
